Financial Advisers News
Thursday, February 9, 2023
  • Market Overview
    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

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    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

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    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

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    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

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    FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried denies crypto exchange fraud

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

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    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

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    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

  • Stock Markets
    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

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    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

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    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

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    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    Meta executive says holiday sales were earlier and bigger this year By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

  • Analysis Forex
    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

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    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

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    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

  • Economy
    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    Indonesia November inflation cools further but stays above target By Reuters

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to revive student debt plan By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    IMF strategy chief heads to China, to focus on speeding up debt treatments By Reuters

    Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

    European shares jump on Powell’s speech, China relief By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    Philippines central bank ready to adjust policy settings amid resilient economy By Reuters

    China factory, services activities slide to 7-month lows on COVID curbs By Reuters

    Zambia on track for debt restructuring next quarter -finance minister By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    At state visit, Biden and Macron face dispute over American subsidies By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    RBI seen raising rates by smaller 35bps in Dec, hiking again in early 2023: Reuters poll By Reuters

  • Cryptocurrency
    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Over 3,000 New UNI Addresses Following NFT Aggregator Launch By CoinEdition

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    FTX Token caused downfall, but tech still revolutionary By Cointelegraph

    Porsche 911 NFTs, BMW files Web3 trademarks, Baby Shark’s NFT game and more… By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

  • Forex
    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    Swiss inflation steady at 3.0% in November as expected By Reuters

    Euro sags against sterling after euro zone inflation cools By Reuters

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

  • Commodities
    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    Exclusive: China to allow home quarantine for some infected with COVID

    EU defends gas price cap proposal after country criticism By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

  • Bonds
  • More
    • Analysis Cryptocurrency
    • Economic Indicators
      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

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      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

      India’s jobless rate rises to three-month high of 8% in Nov

      Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

      India Nov factory activity hits 3-month high as inflation cools By Reuters

      Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

      German retail sales fall in October as inflation takes hold By Reuters

    • Analysis Stock Markets
    • Crypto News
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  • Market Overview
    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried denies crypto exchange fraud

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

  • Stock Markets
    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    Meta executive says holiday sales were earlier and bigger this year By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

  • Analysis Forex
    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

  • Economy
    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    Indonesia November inflation cools further but stays above target By Reuters

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to revive student debt plan By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    IMF strategy chief heads to China, to focus on speeding up debt treatments By Reuters

    Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

    European shares jump on Powell’s speech, China relief By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    Philippines central bank ready to adjust policy settings amid resilient economy By Reuters

    China factory, services activities slide to 7-month lows on COVID curbs By Reuters

    Zambia on track for debt restructuring next quarter -finance minister By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    At state visit, Biden and Macron face dispute over American subsidies By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    RBI seen raising rates by smaller 35bps in Dec, hiking again in early 2023: Reuters poll By Reuters

  • Cryptocurrency
    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Over 3,000 New UNI Addresses Following NFT Aggregator Launch By CoinEdition

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    FTX Token caused downfall, but tech still revolutionary By Cointelegraph

    Porsche 911 NFTs, BMW files Web3 trademarks, Baby Shark’s NFT game and more… By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

  • Forex
    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    Swiss inflation steady at 3.0% in November as expected By Reuters

    Euro sags against sterling after euro zone inflation cools By Reuters

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

  • Commodities
    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    Exclusive: China to allow home quarantine for some infected with COVID

    EU defends gas price cap proposal after country criticism By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

  • Bonds
  • More
    • Analysis Cryptocurrency
    • Economic Indicators
      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

      India’s jobless rate rises to three-month high of 8% in Nov

      Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

      India Nov factory activity hits 3-month high as inflation cools By Reuters

      Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

      German retail sales fall in October as inflation takes hold By Reuters

    • Analysis Stock Markets
    • Crypto News
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Home Analysis Stock Markets

Cisco Provides Some Optimism Ahead of Crucial Year

November 30, 2022
in Analysis Stock Markets
Here’s Why Wrapped Ethereum Isn’t in Trouble
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  • Returns in CSCO have deteriorated as growth has slowed to a crawl
  • Solid Q1 earnings, restructuring plan suggest the company can get back on track
  • It’s difficult to see the stock as compelling, but the mid-term outlook might be good enough for some investors

Looking backward, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:) stock has been solid, if hardly spectacular. Ten-year returns, including dividends, are almost exactly equal to those in the , running at about 13% annualized. Performance has slowed of late, however, as Cisco has underperformed the index: over three- and five-year periods, Cisco has returned 5.3% and 8.2%, respectively. That includes a 22% loss year-to-date (again including dividends), during which time the stock has underperformed the S&P.

The slowing returns and the poor performance so far in 2022 highlight both the potential rewards and the potential risks. After the decline, CSCO is trading more cheaply, and at an earnings multiple that implies relatively little growth from this point. But the stock is trading more cheaply, and has lagged tech peers in recent years, precisely because it hasn’t generated much growth, even when times ostensibly were good.

Between fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2022, Cisco’s adjusted net income rose by just 1.4% — total. Essentially, all of that modest increase came from lower interest expense.

As cheap as CSCO is at the moment, that kind of performance isn’t good enough. But the good news is that Cisco itself sees improvement on the horizon. So do investors: the stock has bounced nicely in recent weeks, including a rally following this month’s fiscal .

If that improvement continues, the rally should as well. However, that remains a big ‘if’ at this point.

Not Enough — Yet

On its face, Cisco’s Q1 seems strong. The adjusted earnings-per-share figure topped analyst estimates. And the company raised its full-year EPS outlook.

Looking closer, however, the news isn’t quite that impressive. Most notably, the higher guidance simply incorporates the Q1 beat. Cisco topped its own outlook for the quarter by two cents, and raised its full-year projection by the same amount.

More importantly, even that higher outlook doesn’t suggest a massive acceleration in growth. The midpoint of the revised EPS guidance implies year-over-year growth of about 5.5%. But the diluted share count for Q1 was down about 3%. More than half of the projected increase in EPS, therefore, is coming from the lower share count, rather than higher overall earnings.

With CSCO trading at under 14x the midpoint of EPS guidance, roughly 3% profit growth doesn’t seem all that exciting. Rather, that kind of growth leads to a profile like that of CSCO: a relatively low multiple to earnings and a 3.2% dividend yield.

Cisco’s Long-Term Outlook

So this does need to get better for CSCO to get back to outperforming the market as it did coming out of the financial crisis. One key reason for the rally in the stock is that investors seem more confident in that possibility post-Q1.

That makes some sense. The multi-year plan to move to a recurring revenue model continues to make progress. Subscription revenue increased 6% year-over-year in the quarter, and accounted for 43% of the total figure.

Demand appears intact. Backlog levels “continue to far exceed historical levels,” per the Q1 conference call.

And potentially there’s some room for improvement thanks to a restructuring announced along with the quarter. Cisco’s headcount will come down, and the company will “optimize” its real estate holdings, closing offices to better align to a hybrid remote/office work environment.

So the case for CSCO’s post-earnings rally is that the move isn’t really about the quarter. Rather, the quarter shows progress in a broader strategy that aims to revitalize the company’s growth. That, in turn, should lead to both higher earnings and a higher multiple, a combination that can move CSCO sharply higher.

The Case for Caution

Again, there’s some logic behind that case. And in a volatile market, the relative consistency of results here should be attractive. Owning CSCO with a 3%-plus dividend and continued share repurchases, plus the optionality of growth accelerating, seems like a solid option.

That said, it’s hard to get that excited just yet. Earlier this year, I was toward the turnaround, and there are reasons to maintain that posture after Q1.

Most notably, Cisco still has a lot left to prove. Backlog is elevated, yes — but Cisco also has dealt with supply-chain problems for some time, which has provided a tailwind to that figure.

Demand is intact, but there, too, the external environment plays a role. The same move to hybrid work that is driving Cisco’s real estate optimization is driving demand for networking equipment. There’s still a very real chance Cisco results will weaken in calendar 2023, as that demand moderates and the impact of IT spending cuts starts to take hold.

And, again, guidance doesn’t suggest a notable acceleration yet. Nor does the restructuring plan really move the needle. As management pointed out on the Q1 call, the headcount reduction is not a huge cost-savings plan: the number of employees at the end of 2022 should be about equal to where it was at the beginning.

All told, there’s still a lot of work left to do, and some notable potential speed bumps on the way in calendar 2023. Cisco’s Q1 shows progress, but it’s only a single quarter in what will be a multi-year process.

Disclaimer: As of this writing, Vince Martin has no positions in any securities mentioned.

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