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Tuesday, January 31, 2023
  • Market Overview
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  • Forex
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    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

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  • Bonds
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      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

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  • Market Overview
    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

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    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

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    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

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    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

  • Stock Markets
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    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

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    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

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    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    Meta executive says holiday sales were earlier and bigger this year By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

  • Analysis Forex
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    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

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    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

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    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

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    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

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    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

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  • Economy
    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    Indonesia November inflation cools further but stays above target By Reuters

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to revive student debt plan By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    IMF strategy chief heads to China, to focus on speeding up debt treatments By Reuters

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    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

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    China factory, services activities slide to 7-month lows on COVID curbs By Reuters

    Zambia on track for debt restructuring next quarter -finance minister By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

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    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    RBI seen raising rates by smaller 35bps in Dec, hiking again in early 2023: Reuters poll By Reuters

  • Cryptocurrency
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    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

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    Over 3,000 New UNI Addresses Following NFT Aggregator Launch By CoinEdition

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

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    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

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    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

  • Forex
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    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

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    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

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    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

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    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

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    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

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    Euro sags against sterling after euro zone inflation cools By Reuters

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    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

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  • Bonds
  • More
    • Analysis Cryptocurrency
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      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

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      Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

      India Nov factory activity hits 3-month high as inflation cools By Reuters

      Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

      German retail sales fall in October as inflation takes hold By Reuters

    • Analysis Stock Markets
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Home Analysis Forex

Has the U.S. Dollar Officially Peaked?

November 30, 2022
in Analysis Forex
Here’s Why Wrapped Ethereum Isn’t in Trouble
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The U.S. dollar is trading near multi-month lows against its major counterparts on expectations the Federal Reserve may slow down its hiking campaign. The pullback in the could extend on reports China may finally amend its zero-COVID policy, which would slow demand for safe-haven assets and increase the appeal of risk assets.

The dollar began declining after the latest print showed that inflationary pressures are easing in the U.S., raising hopes among investors that the Fed may ease the pace of interest rate hikes after delivering four consecutive 75-basis-point increases.

The Chinese government announced it would ramp up vaccination efforts for the elderly population in a bid to facilitate the country’s reopening from the latest coronavirus restrictions and prop up the troubled economy, sending commodity currencies higher.

Furthermore, Chinese officials reportedly adopted a more appeasing stance toward public protests and demonstrations that picked up speed over the past few days as residents grow tired of the government’s stringent zero-COVID policy. It has been reported on Tuesday that China is relaxing its lockdown policy to support economic activity.

Focus Shifting Back to Fed?

While China may be finally set for reopening, investors are waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech this Wednesday, where the central bank boss could provide additional hints about the Fed’s policy plans.

Many expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell will stick to the script – i.e. hawkish rhetoric – and not change stance after a single lower-than-expected inflation print. The focus will then shift toward the next CPI reading in December as the market seeks to gain more insight into inflation trends.

All in all, the latest developments raise a question about whether the greenback’s unprecedented rally this year is approaching its end. The dollar has lost more than 4% in the most recent quarter, after hitting a 20-year high in August. Last week marked the first time investors turned bearish on the U.S. dollar in more than a year.

Goldman Sachs strategists noted that investors are growing anxious for signs of a “fundamental shift,” with investors increasingly worried about not missing out on gains amid high market volatility.

Apart from slower inflation growth and a potential change in China’s zero-COVID policy, warmer weather in Europe has also contributed to more optimistic economic forecasts as it alleviated concerns over the energy crisis this winter.

On the other hand, there are also several significant risks that could easily change the current optimistic tone in the markets. If President Xi Jinping and Chinese lawmakers cling to the zero-COVID policy it could notably impede the growth of the world’s second-largest economy and ward off global investors, as well as fuel another potential rally in the U.S. dollar. The greenback rose earlier this week after the Guangzhou government announced a five-day lockdown in one of its major districts.

Further, other factors like uncertainty around the Fed’s future plans and the ongoing war in Ukraine could also affect the outlook for Europe and other global economies.

What Are Forex Strategists Saying?

Even some of the biggest dollar bulls this year, including JPMorgan (NYSE:) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:), are turning bearish on the greenback as cooler-than-expected October inflation data raise hopes over a more dovish approach by the Fed. If that happens, it could substantially increase the appeal of the euro, yen, and other national currencies that have been battered in recent months.

“Markets now have a better grasp of the Fed’s trajectory,” said Kerry Craig, a strategist in Melbourne at JPMorgan Asset. “The dollar is no longer the straight, one-way buy we’ve seen this year. There’s room for currencies like the euro and yen to recover.”

However, a long-term bear run on the dollar could have a major impact on forex markets, as the USD is a part of 88% of all forex trades.Yet, such a bear run could have broader effects beyond just the currency markets, including easing the pressure on European economies caused by imported inflation and slashing the food prices for developing economies, among other things.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback’s performance against 10 of its biggest peers, is down over 6% from its September high. Meanwhile, the world’s reserve currency has also dropped against all of the 10 rival currencies in the past month, declining as much as 7% against the and .

Abrdn’s James Athey thinks the Fed is aware of the delayed effects interest rate hike would have on price growth. Meanwhile, the divergence between the U.S. and Japan’s monetary policy has “reached its limit,” he added.

If both China and Europe weather the upcoming period better than anticipated, it could provide a boost for their respective currencies against the U.S. dollar. Citing these factors, Nomura strategist Jordan Rochester believes the greenback may have peaked against a basket of currencies.

Conclusion

Whether it has peaked or not, a weaker U.S. dollar could reduce the rampant costs of food and energy, as well as alleviate worries for governments with high U.S. dollar debts. While the near-term focus lies on China and likely loosening of strict zero-COVID policy, the expectations surrounding the Fed and bond yields will continue to determine the direction for the greenback.

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