Financial Advisers News
Thursday, February 9, 2023
  • Market Overview
    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried denies crypto exchange fraud

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

  • Stock Markets
    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    Meta executive says holiday sales were earlier and bigger this year By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

  • Analysis Forex
    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

  • Economy
    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    Indonesia November inflation cools further but stays above target By Reuters

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to revive student debt plan By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    IMF strategy chief heads to China, to focus on speeding up debt treatments By Reuters

    Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

    European shares jump on Powell’s speech, China relief By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    Philippines central bank ready to adjust policy settings amid resilient economy By Reuters

    China factory, services activities slide to 7-month lows on COVID curbs By Reuters

    Zambia on track for debt restructuring next quarter -finance minister By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    At state visit, Biden and Macron face dispute over American subsidies By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    RBI seen raising rates by smaller 35bps in Dec, hiking again in early 2023: Reuters poll By Reuters

  • Cryptocurrency
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    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Over 3,000 New UNI Addresses Following NFT Aggregator Launch By CoinEdition

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    FTX Token caused downfall, but tech still revolutionary By Cointelegraph

    Porsche 911 NFTs, BMW files Web3 trademarks, Baby Shark’s NFT game and more… By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

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    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

  • Forex
    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    Swiss inflation steady at 3.0% in November as expected By Reuters

    Euro sags against sterling after euro zone inflation cools By Reuters

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

  • Commodities
    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    Exclusive: China to allow home quarantine for some infected with COVID

    EU defends gas price cap proposal after country criticism By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

  • Bonds
  • More
    • Analysis Cryptocurrency
    • Economic Indicators
      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

      India’s jobless rate rises to three-month high of 8% in Nov

      Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

      India Nov factory activity hits 3-month high as inflation cools By Reuters

      Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

      German retail sales fall in October as inflation takes hold By Reuters

    • Analysis Stock Markets
    • Crypto News
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  • Market Overview
    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried denies crypto exchange fraud

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

  • Stock Markets
    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    Meta executive says holiday sales were earlier and bigger this year By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

  • Analysis Forex
    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

  • Economy
    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    Indonesia November inflation cools further but stays above target By Reuters

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to revive student debt plan By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    IMF strategy chief heads to China, to focus on speeding up debt treatments By Reuters

    Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

    European shares jump on Powell’s speech, China relief By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    Philippines central bank ready to adjust policy settings amid resilient economy By Reuters

    China factory, services activities slide to 7-month lows on COVID curbs By Reuters

    Zambia on track for debt restructuring next quarter -finance minister By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    At state visit, Biden and Macron face dispute over American subsidies By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    RBI seen raising rates by smaller 35bps in Dec, hiking again in early 2023: Reuters poll By Reuters

  • Cryptocurrency
    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Over 3,000 New UNI Addresses Following NFT Aggregator Launch By CoinEdition

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    FTX Token caused downfall, but tech still revolutionary By Cointelegraph

    Porsche 911 NFTs, BMW files Web3 trademarks, Baby Shark’s NFT game and more… By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

  • Forex
    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    Swiss inflation steady at 3.0% in November as expected By Reuters

    Euro sags against sterling after euro zone inflation cools By Reuters

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

  • Commodities
    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    Exclusive: China to allow home quarantine for some infected with COVID

    EU defends gas price cap proposal after country criticism By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

  • Bonds
  • More
    • Analysis Cryptocurrency
    • Economic Indicators
      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

      India’s jobless rate rises to three-month high of 8% in Nov

      Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

      India Nov factory activity hits 3-month high as inflation cools By Reuters

      Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

      German retail sales fall in October as inflation takes hold By Reuters

    • Analysis Stock Markets
    • Crypto News
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Home Stock Markets

Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

December 1, 2022
in Stock Markets
Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)
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The recent dip in Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) shares over the last year has been painful for investors. A combination of rising rates, easing covid restrictions, and general economic sentiment has hurt earnings and battered the otherwise buoyant stock, sending shares down by more than half, and cutting earnings multiples to 9-year lows.

Despite the malaise, the company has continued to execute its long-term business plan. Management has navigated the demand pull forward from Covid, launching new products and even purchasing a major competitor – Figma – for $20 Billion. While some argue that Adobe overpaid, we see it as continued evidence that Adobe management sees the bigger picture. Adobe is a company that needs to defend its competitive moat, and being price insensitive to get the deal done actually serves their long-term stakeholders.

Taken together, management’s continued commitment to the long term and the decline in share prices over the last year seems to have presented regular, everyday investors with an excellent opportunity. Adobe has all the hallmarks of being an excellent long-term wealth compounder, and purchasing shares right now seems like an extremely attractive entry point to begin building a position.

What is a “Compounder”?

Before diving into the specifics about what makes Adobe such an attractive long-term investment, it’s important to define exactly what we mean when we’re talking about “compounders”. Compounders are companies that offer the unique prospect of compounding an investment’s value at a higher-than-average rate, and different analysts have different ways of defining these types of opportunities. Some look at return on invested capital, some look at qualitative things like product satisfaction, and some measure IRR. We take a different view.

Compounding doesn’t happen automatically – it requires buyers and sellers in the market to agree that an asset’s value has increased vs. the year before. Thus, when it comes to finding an asset that will compound its value over time, there are only two factors that matter: supply and demand.

Let’s take a look at a quick example, using two stocks with drastically different supply and demand profiles.

apple chart

TradingView

This first company is Apple (AAPL). As you can see, Apple has been growing revenue and earnings like clockwork over the last decade. This increased utility has led to an increase in demand for shares in the growing enterprise. In this way, we can use increasing revenue (scale of the business) and increasing earnings (competitive advantage, profit for investors) as proxies for demand.

But what about supply? Well, as it turns out, Apple has also been retiring shares from the outstanding investor base, buying them up in the open market. Long-term investors have seen their percentage ownership of the business increase over the last 10 years, without doing anything. As a result, even if the business hadn’t grown at all over the last decade, earnings per share would still be increasing.

When you put these two dynamics together, it can be an incredibly powerful compounding force. Check out how the company’s stock has performed over the last 10 years: it’s up over 650%.

apple chart

TradingView

On the flip side, let’s take a look at a company that has much different supply and demand dynamics. Let’s look at Consolidated Edison (ED).

coned chart

TradingView

First: the good. The company isn’t shrinking. Revenue increased 12% over the last decade, from $12.2B to $13.7B. Earnings growth has been similar, as net income has only picked up 17%, moving from $1.14B to $1.34B. The company also pays a ~3% Dividend. This is a tepid demand profile for the stock, to say the least.

What about supply? Well, supply in shares of ConEd has grown by almost 20% since 2012, moving from 294m to 349m, a gain of over 18%. The company has used its equity as a weapon, and diluted shareholders to raise capital / make acquisitions. This can make sense if the move is accretive, but clearly it hasn’t been, as the results haven’t shown up in more than a decade of earnings.

Thus, with a mixed demand profile and an increasing supply of shares, it should be almost no surprise that Consolidated Edison shares have languished, up only 74% over the last 10 years:

coned chart

TradingView

Even if you include dividends, this is massive underperformance when compared with the broader indices.

Remember: actions speak louder than words. No matter what investors, analysts, or executives say, it’s difficult to argue with the proven performance of a company built over a meaningful period of time.

What makes Adobe a compounder?

In short, Adobe is a compounder because it has the same favorable supply and demand dynamics that all great compounders share.

First, let’s take a look at Adobe’s revenue.

adobe chart

TradingView

Adobe’s revenue has exploded over the last 5 years, growing from $7.2 Billion TTM to $17 Billion TTM. This is incredibly impressive and represents over an 18% CAGR. Clearly, the size of the business is increasing as executives have executed their business plans competently.

The same trends exist when it comes to net income:

adobe chart

TradingView

While the standard deviation in the trend of net income is higher than the rhythmic pace of increasing revenue, the growth has been quicker. In the last 5 years, net income has grown from $1.7 Billion TTM to $4.8 Billion TTM, representing an astonishing 23% CAGR – even higher than the revenue growth rate.

In short, the increasing utility of holding Adobe stock creates highly favorable long term demand trends.

What about the supply of Adobe shares?

adobe chart

TradingView

Shockingly, supply of shares has actually decreased over the last 5 years, as management has retired shares from the open market. While the decrease in share count has not been drastic – decreasing from (diluted) 500m shares to 469m shares – Adobe management has shown that they aren’t willing diluters of the company’s stock.

So, to recap, supply and demand trends in Adobe stock make it a highly attractive potential long-term investment.

Why is now a good time to buy?

Right now is a good time to buy because the stock is oversold, heavily discounted, and potentially ready to mean-revert higher.

From a technical perspective, the stock is the most oversold it’s been since 2009 on the monthly chart, with a recent RSI reading of ~35.

adobe chart

TradingView

When stocks get this “extreme” on one side of the market or the other, it usually means there’s an opportunity for a sharp trader or investor out there. For us, this oversold condition isn’t likely to hold forever, and thus it presents an opportunity, especially given the positive, longer-term supply and demand dynamics already discussed.

Additionally, from a valuation standpoint, the stock is extremely historically cheap, both in terms of net income multiple, and sales multiple. Right now, you can purchase shares in Adobe at only ~32 times earnings, a significant historical discount considering Adobe was trading at greater than 60x less than 12 months ago. You can see below that shares have dipped into extreme value territory, even briefly trading out of the standard deviation valuation range:

adobe chart

TradingView

While it’s possible that these extreme technical and valuation metrics are a result of “the market trying to tell us something” about Adobe, it’s far more likely that this is a “buy when there is blood in the streets” opportunity. Fading fear in proven winners has proven to be a historically profitable strategy.

So, what are people worried about, anyway?

There are a number of factors having to do with this recent decline, chief among them the cyclical low we experienced in the rate cycle earlier this year. As rates go up, the net present value of future cash flows goes down. Stocks also become less and less attractive vs. “Risk free” rates.

As future earnings get more and more discounted, companies which derive a significant portion of their value from future growth become less valuable. This is especially true for companies with no earnings to speak of. As a result, nearly all of the high growth companies on the market today have been sold indiscriminately.

However, Adobe is a profitable, growing company, now. It’s different than the hundreds of other companies down more than 50% this year. It has a profitable business plan it’s executing. It’s produced billions in earnings for its investors, and meaningful revenue growth as well.

It is also plausible to believe that the re-rating the stock has experienced is a result of a pull-forward in demand for its services. As the pandemic raged, many were forced inside, and used all types of digital services at higher-than-usual rates. This trend positively impacted Adobe, as you could see from the financial data earlier. However, as the pandemic has begun to die down and people go back to their old habits, usership and earnings have dipped as well.

While this is a valid fear, if you zoom out at Adobe’s financials, then it’s clear to see that there’s a lot of “room” for earnings to shrink before they fall outside of the trends the company has previously produced.

adobe chart

TradingView

In other words, we think the recent earnings performance is baked into the stock, and current fears are overblown.

Risks & Summary

While it seems as though the risks are priced in at this point, there is further risk that management stops executing, and the demand for Adobe shares is dampened dramatically over time. There is also the risk that the selling momentum is not over yet.

Finally, there is the risk that Adobe just lit $20B on fire with their acquisition of Figma. While it’s likely that they did overpay, all quality assets require this of buyers, whether or not they are public securities. This, to us, is a strong indicator of Adobe’s competence and continued commitment to long-term shareholders, not a financial misstep.

Thus, on balance, this selloff may prove to be an excellent opportunity to snag yourself a piece of this terrific long-term asset.

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