Financial Advisers News
Thursday, February 9, 2023
  • Market Overview
    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried denies crypto exchange fraud

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

  • Stock Markets
    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    Meta executive says holiday sales were earlier and bigger this year By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

  • Analysis Forex
    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

  • Economy
    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    Indonesia November inflation cools further but stays above target By Reuters

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to revive student debt plan By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    IMF strategy chief heads to China, to focus on speeding up debt treatments By Reuters

    Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

    European shares jump on Powell’s speech, China relief By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    Philippines central bank ready to adjust policy settings amid resilient economy By Reuters

    China factory, services activities slide to 7-month lows on COVID curbs By Reuters

    Zambia on track for debt restructuring next quarter -finance minister By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    At state visit, Biden and Macron face dispute over American subsidies By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    RBI seen raising rates by smaller 35bps in Dec, hiking again in early 2023: Reuters poll By Reuters

  • Cryptocurrency
    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Over 3,000 New UNI Addresses Following NFT Aggregator Launch By CoinEdition

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    FTX Token caused downfall, but tech still revolutionary By Cointelegraph

    Porsche 911 NFTs, BMW files Web3 trademarks, Baby Shark’s NFT game and more… By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

  • Forex
    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    Swiss inflation steady at 3.0% in November as expected By Reuters

    Euro sags against sterling after euro zone inflation cools By Reuters

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

  • Commodities
    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    Exclusive: China to allow home quarantine for some infected with COVID

    EU defends gas price cap proposal after country criticism By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

  • Bonds
  • More
    • Analysis Cryptocurrency
    • Economic Indicators
      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

      India’s jobless rate rises to three-month high of 8% in Nov

      Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

      India Nov factory activity hits 3-month high as inflation cools By Reuters

      Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

      German retail sales fall in October as inflation takes hold By Reuters

    • Analysis Stock Markets
    • Crypto News
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  • Market Overview
    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried denies crypto exchange fraud

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

  • Stock Markets
    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    Meta executive says holiday sales were earlier and bigger this year By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

  • Analysis Forex
    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

  • Economy
    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    Indonesia November inflation cools further but stays above target By Reuters

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to revive student debt plan By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    IMF strategy chief heads to China, to focus on speeding up debt treatments By Reuters

    Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

    European shares jump on Powell’s speech, China relief By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    Philippines central bank ready to adjust policy settings amid resilient economy By Reuters

    China factory, services activities slide to 7-month lows on COVID curbs By Reuters

    Zambia on track for debt restructuring next quarter -finance minister By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    At state visit, Biden and Macron face dispute over American subsidies By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    RBI seen raising rates by smaller 35bps in Dec, hiking again in early 2023: Reuters poll By Reuters

  • Cryptocurrency
    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Over 3,000 New UNI Addresses Following NFT Aggregator Launch By CoinEdition

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    FTX Token caused downfall, but tech still revolutionary By Cointelegraph

    Porsche 911 NFTs, BMW files Web3 trademarks, Baby Shark’s NFT game and more… By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

  • Forex
    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    Swiss inflation steady at 3.0% in November as expected By Reuters

    Euro sags against sterling after euro zone inflation cools By Reuters

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

  • Commodities
    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    Exclusive: China to allow home quarantine for some infected with COVID

    EU defends gas price cap proposal after country criticism By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

  • Bonds
  • More
    • Analysis Cryptocurrency
    • Economic Indicators
      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

      India’s jobless rate rises to three-month high of 8% in Nov

      Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

      India Nov factory activity hits 3-month high as inflation cools By Reuters

      Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

      German retail sales fall in October as inflation takes hold By Reuters

    • Analysis Stock Markets
    • Crypto News
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Home Analysis Cryptocurrency

How the Current Bitcoin Bear Cycle Compares to 2014 and 2018

December 1, 2022
in Analysis Cryptocurrency
Here’s Why Wrapped Ethereum Isn’t in Trouble
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Year-to-date, is down by 65% in 2022. Since Bitcoin launched in 2009, it has been a massively profitable investment in all years except for 2014 (-58%) and 2018 (-73%). Does the 2022 downturn portend a new trend, or is it another bear year?

Bitcoin’s Wednesday Rally

From late August to Nov. 7, Bitcoin has largely maintained sideways price action, oscillating between $18k – $21k. After FTX crashed on Nov. 7, Bitcoin entered a new sideways action range, between $15k – $17k.

BTC/USD Daily Chart

This event was one of the biggest FUD generators in recent crypto history, dropping Bitcoin’s price by 23%, from $20,643 to $15,840, the lowest since November 2020. As FTX contagion unwinded, resulting in multiple bankruptcies, from BlockFi to Genesis, it appears that everyone who wanted to exit the Bitcoin market did so.

On Wednesday, Bitcoin rallied by a modest 3.4%, heading over the $17k range only to falter. The question is, what is Bitcoin correlating now?

Bitcoin Correlations Post-FTX Crash Turn Soft

The first signal that FTX exerts a heavy influence on Bitcoin was clear after a better-than-expected report of 7.7% had little effect on the crypto market. Moreover, last Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was interpreted as dovish because the Fed confirmed the next expected rate hike of 50 bps in December and 25 bps next year.

Expectedly, rallied by 6.7%, but out of the norm, leaving both BTC and ETH in the FTX mire. Due to Bitcoin’s reduced liquidity and lower market cap, at $322 billion, the dominant cryptocurrency is now less relevant to the market’s beta exposure as exposure to systemic risk.

With a 77% pullback from its ATH, institutional investors are less likely to enter the market. In other words, Bitcoin is in a soft correlation period, which will be confirmed or disconfirmed with the next CPI report on Dec. 13 and the following FOMC meeting a day after.

Bitcoin’s Past Bear Cycles

The current bear cycle is comparable to 2014-15 and 2018. In 2014, Bitcoin’s bear cycle, with an 85% ATH pullback, lasted for 407 days. In 2018, the pullback was 84% and lasted for 364 days. The current pullback of 77% has lasted for 377 days, starting from Nov. 10, 2021.

Accordingly, the time periods are comparable to the past two bear cycles but with lower depth this time.

BTC Drawdowns

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and Bitcoin Miner Capitulation

Last week, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (OTC:) reached a historical discount of 42% against its ample 633.57k BTC holdings. To make things worse, Digital Currency Group, the owner of GBTC, has large liabilities following the liquidity crunch in its other subsidiary, Genesis Global Trading.

If DCG is forced to tap into GBTC’s Bitcoin supply to meet liabilities, Bitcoin could reach new lows, deeper and faster than we have seen before. In the meantime, the selloff pressure continues to come from Bitcoin miners, who also have to meet debt obligations.

Bitcoin’s technical indicator, known as hash ribbons, representing changes in hash rates using daily moving averages, have formed a bearish “death cross.” Historically, this indicated miner capitulation, also indicated by miner BTC outflows.

Bitcoin - Miner Net Position Change

Bitcoin – Miner Net Position Change

With these two powerful selloff pressures, DCG (potential) and miners (ongoing), Bitcoin’s sideways action is the best-case scenario for the time being. On the flip side, bullish news should not be discounted.

Bitcoin remains one of the few cryptocurrencies, out of over 20,000, to be regulated as a commodity. Likewise, Fidelity, handling $4.5 trillion AuM, recently launched crypto trading through its Fidelity Crypto division for retail investors. Lastly, the dollar strength index () has also taken a downturn, at -3.78% over the month.

At the same time, the and are down considerably year-to-date, at -8.13% and -10.90%, respectively. As a currency debasement hedge, Bitcoin may yet find new buyers.

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