Financial Advisers News
Thursday, February 9, 2023
  • Market Overview
    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

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    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

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    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

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    FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried denies crypto exchange fraud

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

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    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

  • Stock Markets
    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

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    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

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    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

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    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

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    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    Meta executive says holiday sales were earlier and bigger this year By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

  • Analysis Forex
    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

  • Economy
    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    Indonesia November inflation cools further but stays above target By Reuters

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to revive student debt plan By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    IMF strategy chief heads to China, to focus on speeding up debt treatments By Reuters

    Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

    European shares jump on Powell’s speech, China relief By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    Philippines central bank ready to adjust policy settings amid resilient economy By Reuters

    China factory, services activities slide to 7-month lows on COVID curbs By Reuters

    Zambia on track for debt restructuring next quarter -finance minister By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    At state visit, Biden and Macron face dispute over American subsidies By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    RBI seen raising rates by smaller 35bps in Dec, hiking again in early 2023: Reuters poll By Reuters

  • Cryptocurrency
    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Over 3,000 New UNI Addresses Following NFT Aggregator Launch By CoinEdition

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    FTX Token caused downfall, but tech still revolutionary By Cointelegraph

    Porsche 911 NFTs, BMW files Web3 trademarks, Baby Shark’s NFT game and more… By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

  • Forex
    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    Swiss inflation steady at 3.0% in November as expected By Reuters

    Euro sags against sterling after euro zone inflation cools By Reuters

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

  • Commodities
    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    Exclusive: China to allow home quarantine for some infected with COVID

    EU defends gas price cap proposal after country criticism By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

  • Bonds
  • More
    • Analysis Cryptocurrency
    • Economic Indicators
      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

      India’s jobless rate rises to three-month high of 8% in Nov

      Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

      India Nov factory activity hits 3-month high as inflation cools By Reuters

      Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

      German retail sales fall in October as inflation takes hold By Reuters

    • Analysis Stock Markets
    • Crypto News
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  • Market Overview
    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried denies crypto exchange fraud

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

  • Stock Markets
    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    Meta executive says holiday sales were earlier and bigger this year By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

  • Analysis Forex
    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

  • Economy
    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    Indonesia November inflation cools further but stays above target By Reuters

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to revive student debt plan By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    IMF strategy chief heads to China, to focus on speeding up debt treatments By Reuters

    Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

    European shares jump on Powell’s speech, China relief By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    Philippines central bank ready to adjust policy settings amid resilient economy By Reuters

    China factory, services activities slide to 7-month lows on COVID curbs By Reuters

    Zambia on track for debt restructuring next quarter -finance minister By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    At state visit, Biden and Macron face dispute over American subsidies By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    RBI seen raising rates by smaller 35bps in Dec, hiking again in early 2023: Reuters poll By Reuters

  • Cryptocurrency
    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Over 3,000 New UNI Addresses Following NFT Aggregator Launch By CoinEdition

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    FTX Token caused downfall, but tech still revolutionary By Cointelegraph

    Porsche 911 NFTs, BMW files Web3 trademarks, Baby Shark’s NFT game and more… By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

  • Forex
    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    Swiss inflation steady at 3.0% in November as expected By Reuters

    Euro sags against sterling after euro zone inflation cools By Reuters

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

  • Commodities
    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    Exclusive: China to allow home quarantine for some infected with COVID

    EU defends gas price cap proposal after country criticism By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

  • Bonds
  • More
    • Analysis Cryptocurrency
    • Economic Indicators
      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

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      Jay Powell is no dove

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

      India’s jobless rate rises to three-month high of 8% in Nov

      Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

      India Nov factory activity hits 3-month high as inflation cools By Reuters

      Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

      German retail sales fall in October as inflation takes hold By Reuters

    • Analysis Stock Markets
    • Crypto News
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Home Market Overview

Is the Bond Market Pricing in End Game for Rate Hikes?

December 1, 2022
in Market Overview
Here’s Why Wrapped Ethereum Isn’t in Trouble
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It’s been an unusually rough year for bond investing, but there are hints that the market is forecasting that the worst has passed. If correct, shifting to a risk-on posture offers the opportunity for hefty returns going forward.

As always with trying to divine the future for markets there’s no way to know if an upbeat outlook for bonds is premature. But for investors willing and able to tolerate timing risk — i.e. the potential for ongoing losses — the recent revival in bond prices suggests it’s timely to bet that bear market for fixed-income markets may be ending.

What is clear is that losses for US bonds are unusually steep year to date, based on a set of ETF proxies. Except for short-term Treasuries () and floating-rate bonds (), all the major slices of US fixed-income markets are in the red, in some cases dramatically so. The biggest loser so far in 2022: long-term Treasuries via iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (), which has lost 29% this year, which is more than twice as deep as the decline for the US bond benchmark, based on Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ().

U.S. Bonds YTD ETF Performance

U.S. Bonds YTD ETF Performance

November, however, has brought relief. Using BND as a proxy for the investment-grade market reflects a strong rally over the past month.

BND Daily Chart

A key driver of the revival in bond prices (and commensurate decline in yields) is speculation that the Federal Reserve is now on a path to start slowing the pace of interest-rate hikes, which in turn implies that a pause and perhaps a reversal for policy tightening is near.

Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy at AmeriVet Securities says:

“Fed policy is dynamic and they are still signaling they are going to go higher. But the market trades like it is more comfortable with the Fed getting to an end game.”

Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 70% probability for a 50-basis-points hike at the next FOMC meeting on Dec. 14. If accurate, that will be the first downshift from the 75-basis-points increases that have prevailed since the Fed launched the first of a series of hikes in March.

The two-year Treasury yield, arguably the most sensitive maturity for rate expectations, has been flat to lower in recent weeks, providing another clue for thinking that the much-anticipated Fed pivot is close.

U.S. 2-Year Daily Chart

The inverted Treasury yield curve also inspires some analysts to think positively on the outlook for Fed policy. The slide in the 2-year/10-year spread, for instance, has plunged to the lowest negative level in decades, which is widely seen as a forecast that a US recession is near.

10-2 Year Yield Spread Daily Chart

10-2 Year Yield Spread Daily Chart

The inverted yield curve reflects “the market saying: I think inflation is going to come down,” says Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at the asset management firm Columbia Threadneedle.

The risk is that the Fed’s hawkish policy runs longer and hotter than the bond-market optimists expect. It’s too soon to rule out that possibility. Indeed, New York Fed President John Williams on Monday said that while there’s a clear risk of recession, he also noted that the central bank’s inflation fight could last through 2024.

“Stronger demand for labor, stronger demand in the economy than I previously thought, and then somewhat higher underlying inflation suggest a modestly higher path for policy relative to September,” he said. “Not a massive change, but somewhat higher.”

Although for October suggests the recent runup in pricing pressure has peaked, the Fed will likely be looking for several months of confirmation.

Meanwhile, signs of slowing US growth are accumulating. The New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) fell to a 1-1/2 year as of Nov. 19. WEI is still above a level the indicates recession, but the ongoing slide suggests that the odds of contraction are rising.

WEI Index

That leaves bond traders with the critical question: Will the Fed continue to raise rates if recession risk is marching higher? If the recent rise in BND is a guide, more investors are inclined to answer “no.”

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