Financial Advisers News
Thursday, February 9, 2023
  • Market Overview
    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried denies crypto exchange fraud

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

  • Stock Markets
    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    Meta executive says holiday sales were earlier and bigger this year By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

  • Analysis Forex
    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

  • Economy
    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    Indonesia November inflation cools further but stays above target By Reuters

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to revive student debt plan By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    IMF strategy chief heads to China, to focus on speeding up debt treatments By Reuters

    Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

    European shares jump on Powell’s speech, China relief By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    Philippines central bank ready to adjust policy settings amid resilient economy By Reuters

    China factory, services activities slide to 7-month lows on COVID curbs By Reuters

    Zambia on track for debt restructuring next quarter -finance minister By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    At state visit, Biden and Macron face dispute over American subsidies By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    RBI seen raising rates by smaller 35bps in Dec, hiking again in early 2023: Reuters poll By Reuters

  • Cryptocurrency
    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Over 3,000 New UNI Addresses Following NFT Aggregator Launch By CoinEdition

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    FTX Token caused downfall, but tech still revolutionary By Cointelegraph

    Porsche 911 NFTs, BMW files Web3 trademarks, Baby Shark’s NFT game and more… By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

  • Forex
    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    Swiss inflation steady at 3.0% in November as expected By Reuters

    Euro sags against sterling after euro zone inflation cools By Reuters

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

  • Commodities
    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    Exclusive: China to allow home quarantine for some infected with COVID

    EU defends gas price cap proposal after country criticism By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

  • Bonds
  • More
    • Analysis Cryptocurrency
    • Economic Indicators
      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

      India’s jobless rate rises to three-month high of 8% in Nov

      Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

      India Nov factory activity hits 3-month high as inflation cools By Reuters

      Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

      German retail sales fall in October as inflation takes hold By Reuters

    • Analysis Stock Markets
    • Crypto News
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  • Market Overview
    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Most Adani shares continue losses; founder loses $28 billion in month

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Russia-Ukraine war updates for Nov.30, 2022

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Bret Taylor steps down as Salesforce co-CEO, Marc Benioff stays as CEO

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    Young disgruntled workers are flocking to Reddit. Here’s why

    FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried denies crypto exchange fraud

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to reinstate student debt plan

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Trenches, endless mud and death: the Battle of Bakhmut

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    Stock futures tick higher after Wednesday’s rally

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

    MARKET LIVE: Sensex off 300pts from high, Nifty holds 18,800; ICICI slips

  • Stock Markets
    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Ryanair sees “robust” travel demand over Easter, summer holidays By Investing.com

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Marriott International: Cozy Fundamentals With A Costly Stock (NASDAQ:MAR)

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Coppock Curve: Who Says ‘You Can’t Time The Market’?

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Rondure Global Advisors Q3 2022 Commentary

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Adobe Stock: Buy The Dip In This Excellent Compounder (NASDAQ:ADBE)

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    Macro Headwinds To Keep Pressure On Copper Prices

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    Meta executive says holiday sales were earlier and bigger this year By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Investors with $30 trln to push companies on human rights, social issues By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

    Exclusive-U.S. Chamber of Commerce warns against draft EU plan to exclude non-EU cloud vendors By Reuters

  • Analysis Forex
    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Pension Investments in Private Credit Hit Eight-Year High

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    Most Viewed Business News Articles, Top News Articles

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    stock recommendations: Hot Stocks: Gland Pharma, Mirza International and Agro Tech Foods could give 19-30% return

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    tata play ipo: Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Fundamental Radar: 6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Inequality in Society Drives Stock-Market Performance

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Being a Cheap Date Is Suddenly a Major Plus

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Car Makers Face Bumpier Road in China

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

    Meet Kevin, the ETF – WSJ

  • Economy
    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    Goldilocks and the three bears By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. Inflation Reduction Act ‘super aggressive,’ Macron tells lawmakers By Reuters

    Indonesia November inflation cools further but stays above target By Reuters

    U.S. appeals court rejects Biden’s bid to revive student debt plan By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    IMF strategy chief heads to China, to focus on speeding up debt treatments By Reuters

    Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

    European shares jump on Powell’s speech, China relief By Reuters

    Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

    Philippines central bank ready to adjust policy settings amid resilient economy By Reuters

    China factory, services activities slide to 7-month lows on COVID curbs By Reuters

    Zambia on track for debt restructuring next quarter -finance minister By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    At state visit, Biden and Macron face dispute over American subsidies By Reuters

    Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

    RBI seen raising rates by smaller 35bps in Dec, hiking again in early 2023: Reuters poll By Reuters

  • Cryptocurrency
    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Secret Network validator shuts down nodes after leadership turmoil By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Over 3,000 New UNI Addresses Following NFT Aggregator Launch By CoinEdition

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Legal professionals astonished as SBF admits failures, apologizes 12 times in interview

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Meta ‘powering through’ with Metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    Sam Bankman-Fried confronted over the fall of FTX in live interview By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    EmpiresX ‘head trader’ to face 4 years of prison over $100M crypto ‘Ponzi’ By Cointelegraph

    FTX Token caused downfall, but tech still revolutionary By Cointelegraph

    Porsche 911 NFTs, BMW files Web3 trademarks, Baby Shark’s NFT game and more… By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    Digital identity platform integrates with zkSync for on-chain KYC By Cointelegraph

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

    U.S. CFTC chair to be questioned over FTX collapse by lawmakers By Reuters

  • Forex
    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Chinese yuan leads Asia FX higher in anticipation of Fed meeting By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    Dollar slumps on Powell’s comments; Yen benefits the most By Investing.com

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    S&P 500 Breaks Tight Range and Overtakes 200-Day Moving Average, Inflation and NFPs Ahead

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Japanese Yen Leaps as US Dollar Sinks Post Powell. Is the Peak in Place for USD/JPY?

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Aussie Feeds Off Risk-On Sentiment Fueled by China and Fed

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    Dollar slips lower; Powell speech, GDP data due By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    EUR/USD ignores positive inflation surprise ahead of busy U.S. schedule By Investing.com

    Swiss inflation steady at 3.0% in November as expected By Reuters

    Euro sags against sterling after euro zone inflation cools By Reuters

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

    Asia FX rallies, dollar sinks as Powell touts tepid rate hikes By Investing.com

  • Commodities
    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Oil falls ahead of OPEC+, U.S. Federal Reserve meetings By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    Coterra Energy to pay $16.29 million for Pennsylvania water contamination plea By Reuters

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    European Gas Jumps as Lower Temperatures Set to Increase Demand By Bloomberg

    Exclusive: China to allow home quarantine for some infected with COVID

    EU defends gas price cap proposal after country criticism By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    OPEC oil output drops in November after cut pledged -survey By Reuters

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Oil up nearly 3% on jumbo U.S. crude draw as reserves use plummets   By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Gold hits over 3-month high as Powell flags slower rate hikes By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Oil rally stalls on weak Chinese data, uncertainty over OPEC cut By Investing.com

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

    Europe wary of Turkish hub to hide gas ‘made in Moscow’ By Reuters

  • Bonds
  • More
    • Analysis Cryptocurrency
    • Economic Indicators
      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Spain’s 12-month inflation rate inched up to 5.8% in January By Reuters

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Investors need a different playbook for 2023

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      Fed hints at less aggressive rate increase

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      FirstFT: EU and US turn up the heat on Elon Musk

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Jay Powell is no dove

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Emerging market stocks and bonds stage powerful rebound rally

      Thai central bank raises key interest rate by 25 bps to 1.25% By Reuters

      India’s jobless rate rises to three-month high of 8% in Nov

      Asian FX bulls loom on signs of slowing Fed rate hikes, China reopening: Reuters poll By Reuters

      India Nov factory activity hits 3-month high as inflation cools By Reuters

      Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms By Reuters

      German retail sales fall in October as inflation takes hold By Reuters

    • Analysis Stock Markets
    • Crypto News
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Home Bonds

Rates Outlook 2023: Belt Up, We’re Going Down

December 1, 2022
in Bonds
Here’s Why Wrapped Ethereum Isn’t in Trouble
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Bond market returns for 2022 have been horrific, right along the credit curve. For 2023, returns will be helped by a higher starting running yield and subsequent falls in market rates. Bonds will be a good place to be, especially higher on the credit spectrum. Brace for a reduction in liquidity and more available collateral as key themes, too.

The energy crisis this year saw us drawing parallels to the 1970s and 80s. Dollar strength was a net outcome as the Volcker years generated high real rates to kill inflation. The collapse in tech stocks, meanwhile, has struck a similar chord to the dot com boom and bust of 1999/2000. That period also saw the dollar in vogue. And as we pick through the bones of the 2019/20 pandemic fallout, we’re reminded of the great financial crisis in 2007/08, as housing markets suffered intense pressure. So many parallels, but none are perfect. Our story for 2023 draws on these with a modern twist. As we know, history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

Inflation and Fed Funds Rate Back to the 1970s (%)

Inflation and Fed Funds Rate Back to the 1970s (%)

So what do we see? The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will all undershoot the current market discount for terminal rates, but we should get quite close to the tops that the market expects. For market rates, we need to see those peaks before we can conclusively declare the top. That implies that market rates should remain under upward pressure, at least through the turn of the year and likely into the early part of the first quarter of 2023. After that, it’s all about market rates concluding that if indeed we have peaked, the next move must be down. Actual Fed rate cuts in the second half will solidify this move, even if the ECB decides to stand still.

Overall, market rates in the 10yr are projected to fall by some 100bp in 2023 (US by a bit more and eurozone by half that), and the should fall by more still if we are right and the Fed does cut in the second half. The US curve should steepen by more than the eurozone curve as the ECB steers clear from actually cutting rates in 2023. The peak in the Fed funds rate should act to ease the premium, and we’ll see that in an easing in the US dollar cross-currency basis. The second half of 2023 should see some meaningful convergence of eurozone to US market rates. All-in spreads, especially those comprising the Japanese yen basis, should narrow significantly.

The energy crisis in Europe adds to bond supply pressure as economies struggle to deal with recessions while at the same time buffering their economies from higher energy costs. This increase in supply is a driver for a widening in swap spreads, as government bonds, at the same time, unwind some of the quantitative easing-induced price premiums. Quantitative tightening is also humming in the background but is a much bigger deal in the US relative to the eurozone or the UK. Tighter conditions also contribute to vulnerabilities in the system, a system that is already being stressed by gaps in prices, wider bid/offer spreads, and higher bank funding costs. In the US, repo should be pressured higher.

While a repeat of the great financial crisis is not anticipated, housing market pressure, resulting in system pressure and decent falls in inflation, will ultimately allow the Fed to cut in a dot com bust style by enough to avert a significant US recession. But recession there will be, with a bigger one in Europe, likely in play before we get to 2023. This all gels with room for decent fall in market rates through 2023.

We’re not coming off 1970s-style starting points in terms of the level of rates, but we are coming off peaks in market rates that have not been seen since the noughties. The lows won’t be as extreme either; we’re not heading back down to zero this time. We should stop to the downside with handles of 2% and 3% rather than 0% (or close to) for market rates in the US and eurozone and with steeper curves to boot.

Even if inflation gets tamed in 2023, as we expect it will, we now know that an inflation vulnerability is back. That, plus more supply (especially in Europe) and balance sheet roll-off (especially in the US), should allow curves to steepen out, and actual US rate cuts will push in the same direction.

While the act of cutting rates will signal that central banks have brought inflation under control, prior hikes will leave deep macro pain. And in that environment, market rates will test lower, adding oomph to bond market returns, a silver lining to what will be a tough environment ahead.

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